How far away are robots from doing a cleaner's job?

What the government expects

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics counts about 2.43 million janitors and building cleaners in 2025. In its August 2026 forecast, it expects that number to grow 2% by 2035, with about 321,800 openings a year, mostly from people leaving the job.

The same report says high-tech cleaning methods may slow growth, but it does not expect the job to shrink in the next ten years.

What AI experts expect

In a survey taken in December 2024, AI Impacts asked 1,580 AI researchers when machines could do every job better and cheaper than people. As a group they gave that a 10% chance by 2035 and a 50% chance by 2098.

They were asked about hands-on tasks too, and gave about even odds that a robot could fold laundry like a store worker within ten years and wire a new house by 2040. That means a top lab could build it, while getting it cheap and into buildings takes longer.

Their answers have moved earlier with each survey, though the authors also warn that expert guesses like these have a mixed track record.

What banks and economists expect

Morgan Stanley forecasts that humanoid robots will be adopted slowly until the mid-2030s, then faster in the late 2030s and 2040s. Goldman Sachs forecast about 1.4 million humanoid robots shipping by 2035, and in 2024 it put the cost to build one at $30,000 to $150,000.

Back in 2013, two Oxford researchers gave janitors and cleaners a 66% chance of being automated someday, without giving a date. Janitor jobs have grown since then.

Why we say about ten years

Robots that can use their hands are still in labs and a few paid trials today. The first paid job for a humanoid robot was moving totes in a warehouse, and one home robot on sale now still needs a person steering it from afar for chores it has not learned.

Morgan Stanley expects these robots to be adopted slowly until the mid-2030s, and the government expects janitor jobs to keep growing through 2035. Both point to about ten years before robots that do hand work start to show up in buildings.

Our estimate, in three stages

1. Now: machines take open-floor scrubbing and vacuuming in big open buildings, and people do the rest.
2. The next ten years or so, roughly to the mid-2030s: robots that do hand work are built and tested, and near the end of that stretch they start to show up in some buildings for simple tasks, like carrying things from room to room. People still do most of the job, and someone runs the machines.
3. The whole job in most buildings: likely decades away. The experts put a 10% chance on 2035 and even odds on 2098, so the range is very wide.

What would change our read

We would move our estimate earlier if a robot started cleaning restrooms and offices at many paid sites with no one steering it from afar, and later if robots stay stuck in warehouses moving boxes. We will update this page when the evidence changes.